Title and Description:
Stock Assessment Updates of the Bottomfish Management Unit Species of AmericanSamoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam in 2015 Using Data Through 2013
We conducted a strict stock assessment update of the Bottomfish Management Unit Species (BMUS) in Guam, American Samoa, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands using the same base case production model as used in the previous stock assessment, but with an additional 3 years of catch and nominal CPUE as input data. A Bayesian statistical framework was applied to estimate parameters of a production model fit to a time series of annual CPUE statistics to provide direct estimates of parameter uncertainty for status determination. The surplus production model included both process error in biomass production dynamics and observation error in the catch-per-unit effort data. Overall, the American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and the Guam bottomfish complexes were not overfished (overfished is defined as B<0.7*BMSY) and were not experiencing overfishing (overfishing is defined as H>HMSY) in 2013, the most recent year of the stock assessment estimates.
We conducted stock projections for 2016 and 2017, which projected a range of hypothetical two-year catches and calculated corresponding risks of overfishing. For the American Samoa BMUS complex, the 2016 catch level that would produce a 50% risk of overfishing in 2016 was 137 thousand pounds. For the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands BMUS complex, the 2016 catch level that would produce a 50% risk of overfishing in 2016 was 304 thousand pounds. For the Guam BMUS complex, the 2016 catch level that would produce a 50% risk of overfishing in 2016 was 82 thousand pounds. All of these catch values associated with a 50% risk of overfishing in 2016 are much higher than actual bottomfish landings in 2013 for American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam which were 23,630, 22,510, and 29,848 pounds, respectively. The assessment document to be reviewed is a draft NOAA Technical Memorandum.
ID:328 Info. Type: ISI
Estimated DIssemination Date: 11/1/2015
Actual Dissemination Date: 8/24/2015
Contact Person: Michael LIddel NOAA Locator
Date First Posted in Peer Review Agenda: 10/22//2015
Estimated Peer Review Start Date: 8/11/2015
Review type: Panel.
Number of reviewers: 3 or fewer.
Peer reviewers will be designated by an outside organization, WPSAR (NOAA and Western Pacific Council).
Will the public, including scientific or professional societies, be asked to nominate potential peer reviewers? no
Will there be opportunities for the public to comment on the work product to be peer reviewed? yes
How and When?
Product in draft form has already been presented at June 2015 public meetings of the Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council and its Scientific and Statistical Committee.
Review was a public meeting with notice published in Federal Register. Time was alloted for public comment.
Will the agency provide significant and relevant public comments to the peer reviewers before they conduct their review? no,
Primary disciplines or expertise needed in the review: Expertise in stock assessment population models and methods, Bayesian statistics.
Comments on Peer Review: